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Prediction for CME (2022-08-27T02:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-27T02:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21376/-1
CME Note: Clearly visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3; moves quickly through FOV. Associated with eruption and flare from AR 13088, clearly visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-08-27T01:55Z and in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 beginning 2022-08-27T01. Arrival signature identified by LASSOS team/Tarik Salman: the shock is seen around 2022-08-29T02:57Z with a sharp increase in the total magnetic field and proton density. The sheath following this IP shock ends on 2022-08-30T10:46Z, followed by the flux rope. The sheath exhibits enhanced magnetic field and plasma signatures. According to the CME Scoreboard, the arrival would likely be synonymous with CME: 2022-08-27T02:23Z which was expected to arrive on average (8 entries) around 2022-08-29T02:11Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-29T02:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-29T02:11Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.6667%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.6
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 0.48 hour(s)
Difference: 0.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2022-08-29T02:28Z
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