CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-08-27T02:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-27T02:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21376/-1
CME Note: Clearly visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3; moves quickly through FOV. Associated with eruption and flare from AR 13088, clearly visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-08-27T01:55Z and in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 beginning 2022-08-27T01. Arrival signature identified by LASSOS team/Tarik Salman: the shock is seen around 2022-08-29T02:57Z with a sharp increase in the total magnetic field and proton density. The sheath following this IP shock ends on 2022-08-30T10:46Z, followed by the flux rope. The sheath exhibits enhanced magnetic field and plasma signatures. According to the CME Scoreboard, the arrival would likely be synonymous with CME: 2022-08-27T02:23Z which was expected to arrive on average (8 entries) around 2022-08-29T02:11Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-29T02:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-28T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version:
Resolution:
Ambient settings:
WSA version:

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes from 2022-08-27T12:30Z Forecast Discussion:
A CME associated with the M4 flare at 27/0240 from Region 3088 was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the west at 27/0224 UTC. Model output suggests a glancing blow is possible late 28 Aug/early 29 Aug.

Lead Time: 46.95 hour(s)
Difference: 10.95 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-08-27T04:00Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement