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Prediction for CME (2022-09-07T22:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-09-07T22:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21576/-1
CME Note: Visible in the far south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 white light imagery due to data gap. Source is filament eruption seen around S30W00 with a slow liftoff starting around 20:00Z. Characterized by dimming in SDO AIA 193 and filament in SDO AIA 304. Smooth magnetic field component rotations were observed after 2022-09-11T20:00Z which may indicate the arrival of this CME, but if so, the CME was shockless with no rapid increases in magnetic field intensity, temperature, etc, and thus the arrival time is unclear.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-09-11T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/21579/1
Model Inputs:
2022-09-07T22:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-17.0, Speed=344.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2022-09-08T12:07Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-09-11T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-09-11T14:00Z
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-09-11T18:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220908_120700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 70.88 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2022-09-08T17:07Z

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