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Prediction for CME (2022-09-23T14:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-09-23T14:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21716/-1
CME Note: A coronal mass ejection which is associated with an erupting filament west of Active Region 3102 which starts moving around 2022-09-23T10:40Z. The eruption is seen best in SDO AIA 304 but also in SDO AIA 193 and 171. Comment from Tarik Salman from LASSOS team regarding arrival (non-arrival in this case): Looking at the in-situ signatures, I do not necessarily see any noteworthy features of an ICME. Again, for weak ICMEs or ICMEs with glancing blows, it becomes really tricky to distinguish them, especially when there is another large-scale structure (i.e., HSS) present.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-09-27T21:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

SIDC event_ID:290

from SIDC Ursigram Issued: 2022 Sep 25 1247 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 20925
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A more detailed model run for the West-bound CME of September 23 shows a possible glancing blow in the late hours of September 27.

Earlier estimate from SIDC Ursigram 20924 issued: 2022 Sep 24 1232 UTC:
SIDC URSIGRAM 20924
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The eruption around noon yesterday of a filament stretching from Catania
group 35 (NOAA active region 3102) towards the West was associated with a
partial halo CME as visible in SoHO/LASCO and STEREO-A coronagraph data. It
is first visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 data at 13:48UTC and propagates mainly
towards the West with an angular extension reaching around 180 degrees. The
projected speed is measured as just over 500 km/s and estimates of the
speed along the line of propagation are up to 600km/s. Given the location
and direction a glancing blow from this CME cannot be excluded and if so,
would preliminarily be expected in the morning of September 27. A more
detailed model run is being prepared and analyzed.

Lead Time: 55.48 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2022-09-25T13:31Z

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