CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-09-23T18:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-09-23T18:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21721/-1
CME Note: Eruption from AR 3110 (near N18E80) starting around 2022-09-23T17:30Z seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304. Opening of field lines occurs around 17:50Z seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193. This CME is also associated with an M1.7 flare peaking at 2022-09-23T18:10Z. Appears to contain a weak faint shock that is much wider. Comment from Tarik Salman from LASSOS team regarding arrival (non-arrival in this case): Looking at the in-situ signatures, I confirm that the L1 signature appears dominated by the HSS arrival. I do not necessarily see any noteworthy features of an ICME. For weak ICMEs or ICMEs with glancing blows, it becomes really tricky to distinguish them, especially when there is another large-scale structure (i.e., HSS) present.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-09-27T00:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -7.78 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2022-09-27T07:47Z
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