CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2022-09-28T04:48:00-CME-001)

NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a4b1
Ejecta settings d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrzqs
cormode: single


## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2022-09-29T20:14:51Z
## Message ID: 20220929-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

O-type CME detected by SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2022-09-28T04:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~1085 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 22 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -30/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2022-09-28T04:48:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and STEREO B (glancing blow).  The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2022-09-29T10:49Z, STEREO A at 2022-09-30T14:35Z, and the flank will reach STEREO B at 2022-10-02T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 
  
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-10-01T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-09-28T04:48:00-CME-001, 2022-09-28T05:24:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif


## Notes: 
This simulation also includes an S-type CME with activity ID 2022-09-28T05:24:00-CME-001 that is not predicted to impact NASA missions.

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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