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Prediction for CME (2022-10-03T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-10-03T00:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21872/-1
CME Note: Visible as a partial halo S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Appears to have two separate fronts in C2, which merge within the C3 field of view. No STEREO A COR2 imagery available during real-time analysis due to beacon data gap. Associated with large filament eruption centered near S30E30, visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2022-10-02T22:15Z. UPDATE (2022-10-21T15:47Z) from Tarik (LASSOS Team): Do not see any potential CME signatures on 2022-10-06T03:00Z and around this time. The field components, even though exhibiting rotations are too fluctuating. There is an enhancement in the magnetic field around T16:00Z which also coincides with a decreasing small period of proton density. However, looking at the field components, no definite CME signatures seem to be present.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-05T15:05Z
Prediction Method: SPM2
Prediction Method Note:

SPM2 Input Parameters:
Date-time:   2022-10-03 00:36:00
Source Longtitude: -30
Source Latitude:  -30
Initial Shock Speed: 468 km/s 
Background Solar Wind Speed: 430 km/s 
Duration Time: 0.67 hrs

Output results: The shock will reach the Earth at 2022-10-05 15:04:31

Lead Time: 22.85 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2022-10-04T16:14Z

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