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Prediction for CME (2022-10-04T14:24:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2022-10-04T14:24ZCME Note: Visible in the S of SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. Associated with filament eruption centered near S30E05, visible in SDO AIA 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-10-04T13:25Z. LASSOS team discussed solar wind signatures on 2022-10-06 and 2022-10-07 and determined that there was no clear CME arrival signature on these dates. CME was not detected at Earth. Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-07T03:00Z Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0 Prediction Method: SARM Prediction Method Note: CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-10-04 18:28 â- Time at C2: 2022-10-04 14:24 â- Radial speed: 797.0 km/s â- Half angle: 39 deg â- Eruption location: S30E04 âInferences: ââ - No flare association was found âPredictions for Earth: ââ - In-situ shock speed: 645.10 km/s ââ - Shock arrival time: 2022-10-07 03:00 (i.e. predicted transit time: 60.60 hours)Lead Time: 55.00 hour(s) Difference: ----- Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-10-04T20:00Z |
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