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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-10-04T14:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-10-04T14:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21898/-1
CME Note: Visible in the S of SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. Associated with filament eruption centered near S30E05, visible in SDO AIA 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-10-04T13:25Z. LASSOS team discussed solar wind signatures on 2022-10-06 and 2022-10-07 and determined that there was no clear CME arrival signature on these dates.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-06T21:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-10-04T13:40Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 980
Longitude (deg): E05
Latitude (deg): S18
Half-angular width (deg): 28

Notes: Only one usable frame of LASCO available, so STEREO used mainly. Okay fit but cone may be too wide.
Space weather advisor: Richard Stone

Lead Time: 36.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-10-05T08:12Z

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