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Prediction for CME (2022-10-11T09:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-10-11T09:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21975/-1
CME Note: Visible in W in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2. May be associated with eruption near N24W35, visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2022-10-11T08:56Z, following M3.9 flare. UPDATE (2022-10-21T15:45Z) from Tarik (LASSOS Team): There is no ICME signature on 2022-10-14, however, a clear Stream Interaction Region (SIR) is evident in the L1 signatures. The SIR start and the HSS start is denoted by gold and blue lines respectively. The SIR start is identified by rotations in the field components (because of compression) and start of a turbulent period of field components. Also, enhancements of the magnetic field and proton density is observed at the interface and you can see the bulk speed to increase till the start of the HSS (after which this should remain constant).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-14T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a4b1
Ejecta settings d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrzqs
cormode: single


https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/21987/1
Model Inputs:
2022-10-11T11:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=29.0, Lat.=9.0, Speed=365.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2022-10-11T21:11Z
2022-10-11T09:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=38.0, Lat.=14.0, Speed=268.0, HalfAngle=44.0, Time21.5=2022-10-11T22:43Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-10-14T23:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-10-16T14:00Z
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-10-15T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221011_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Note:
The predicted arrival at Earth is very weak and is likely to be dominated by high speed stream effects, according to the simulation outputs.

Lead Time: 79.27 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-10-11T15:44Z

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