CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-10-13T07:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-10-13T07:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22003/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and to the South in STEREO A COR2. It has a separate faint shock that is only visible in SOHO LASCO coronagraph imagery with a more defined bulk portion seen in both SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is a filament eruption centered around S28E08 starting around 2022-10-13T07:00Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA 304, 193 (dimming/brightening), and STEREO A EUVI 195. From Tarik Salman (LASSOS team), a definite CME arrival signature was not observed during the expected arrival timeframe. There appeared to be an SIR/HSS arrival at L1 on 2022-10-16 and 2022-10-18 which makes it difficult to identify CMEs with real-time data only. In such cases, pitch angle distribution (PAD), charge state, and particle abundance are helpful in identifying a CME in mixed CME+HSS signatures.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-16T23:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.33333
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 34.12 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2022-10-15T12:53Z
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