CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-10-14T23:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-10-14T23:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22019/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely the filament eruption extending diagonally from around S30W30 to S12W50 starting at 2022-10-14T22:00Z. Post eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193 around 2022-10-15T00:30Z, as well as an opening of field lines seen in SDO AIA 171 the SW region around the same time. This CME partially overlaps CME: 2022-10-15T00:00Z, which may possibly originate from the same source. From Tarik Salman (LASSOS team), a definite CME arrival signature was not observed during the expected arrival timeframe. There appeared to be an SIR/HSS arrival at L1 on 2022-10-16 and 2022-10-18 which makes it very difficult to identify CMEs with only real-time data. In such cases, pitch angle distribution (PAD), charge state, and particle abundance are helpful in identifying a CME in mixed CME+HSS signatures.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-18T23:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 79.87 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2022-10-15T15:08Z
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