CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-10-21T04:49:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-10-21T04:49ZCME Note: From SIDC Ursigram (2022-10-21T20:49Z): A possibly Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection was observed in LASCO/C2 data on 21 October 04:49 UTC. This is believed to be associated with a radio pulse on 21 October 04:08 UTC and a C1.6-class flare, peak time 21 October 04:32 UTC from NOAA active region 3126 as well as an EUV wave. A possible impact on Earth may be expected 27 October 04:59 UTC, with the caveat that the CME speed is rather low and said impact may not be too profound. From Tarik Salman (LASSOS team): I do not see any CME signatures on 10-27 0r 10-28 (confirming that there is a start of HSS on 10-28).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-27T04:59Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 133.08 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2022-10-21T15:54Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement