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Prediction for CME (2022-11-13T11:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-11-13T11:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22274/-1
CME Note: CME faintly visible in the S in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. May be associated with eruption near S40W05, dimming visible in SDO AIA 193 beginning 2022-11-13T08:59Z. May possibly be associated with a filament liftoff, but SDO AIA data gaps make that hard to ascertain. Arrival signature (by Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS team):There can be two possible ICME start times: the first one is around 2022-11-17T02:58Z. The choice of this start time is based on Bz becoming positive from negative and the start of rotations (not exactly smooth) in the field components. This start time also coincides with a drop in proton density. Alternative choice of start time can be 2022-11-17T11:36Z when both Bx and By change signs. This also corresponds to another drop in proton density and the speed profile exhibiting expansion (see the decreasing speed).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-11-17T02:58Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-11-17T07:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/22276/1
Model Inputs:
2022-11-13T11:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=9.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=307.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2022-11-13T22:41Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-11-17T07:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-19T10:00Z
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-17T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221113_224100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 83.93 hour(s)
Difference: -4.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-11-13T15:02Z

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