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Prediction for CME (2022-11-14T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-11-14T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22281/-1
CME Note: Visible in the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. May be associated with eruption from AR 13145 (N25W35), visible as a filament eruption directed southward from the AR in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2022-11-14T02:59Z, triggered by a C3.3 flare peaking 2022-11-14T02:49Z. No STEREO A EUVI imagery available during real-time analysis due to beacon data gap. Arrival signature (courtesy of Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS team): ICME signature around 2022-11-18T15:00Z where both By and Bz change signs. This CMEs might have interacted with the CME arriving on 2022-11-17. The CME exhibits compression (negative expansion), see the increasing speed. This might explain the peaks and compression observed in proton density. A possible end of this ICME can be around 2022-11-19T12:24Z, after that the field becomes turbulent.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-11-18T15:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-11-17T12:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/22285/1
Model Inputs:
2022-11-14T03:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=36.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=488.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2022-11-14T10:24Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-11-17T12:11Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =22.2 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.6
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-17T13:01Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-19T22:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-17T10:30Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221114_102400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 98.60 hour(s)
Difference: 27.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-11-14T13:13Z

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