CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-11-19T07:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-11-19T07:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22364/-1
CME Note: Visible as a partial halo to the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3; no STEREO A COR2 imagery available yet due to beacon data gap. May be associated with flare and EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 beginning 2022-11-19T06:12Z and in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 beginning 2022-11-19T06:15Z. UPDATE (2022-11-28T16:30Z): This CME may possibly have been part of a combined arrival with the 2022-11-19T09:48Z CME at around 2022-11-22T06:22Z, but the L1 solar wind signature is dominated by the latter CME and there is no sign of this CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-11-22T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/22366/1 Model Inputs: 2022-11-19T07:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=45.0, Lat.=4.0, Speed=385.0, HalfAngle=60.0, Time21.5=2022-11-19T17:23Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-11-22T22:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=2 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-25T04:00Z OSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-23T08:00Z STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-11-22T21:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221119_172300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 81.57 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-11-19T12:26Z
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