CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-11-19T09:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-11-19T09:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22371/-1
CME Note: Seen in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The CME appears far out of the field of view after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 and is first visible at 2022-11-19T12:23Z. Filament was centered around N40E30 on the Earth-facing disk but the liftoff in SDO AIA 304 appeared to deflect towards the west. Post-liftoff dimming is also seen in the NE of STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery at 2022-11-19T12:25Z. Eruption starts off slow around 06:30Z and is nearly fully lifted off by 10:00Z. LASSOS team (Tarik Mohammad): A possible minor CME arrival (possibly w/o a flux rope). Total magnetic field remains very low (6 nT). The possible end of this CME can be 2022-11-23T04:38Z. Around this time, proton density seems to start increasing and expansion seems to cease. The field components also start to fluctuate.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-11-22T06:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-11-22T03:05Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 58.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 45.15 hour(s)
Difference: 3.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2022-11-20T09:13Z
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