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Prediction for CME (2022-11-22T08:00:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2022-11-22T08:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22427/-1 CME Note: Halo CME seen first in the SE of SOHO LASCO C2 and then in the SSW in STEREO A COR2 and is likely associated with the C7.0-class flare from AR3151 peaking around 2022-11-22T07:27Z. The flare and subsequent eruption was accompanied by an EUV wave which was mostly directed toward the south and east as seen in SDO AIA 193 and 171 imagery starting around 2022-11-22T07:09Z. CME was not detected at Earth. Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-11-25T09:54Z Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0 Prediction Method: SARM Prediction Method Note: CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-11-22 14:11 â- Time at C2: 2022-11-22 08:00 â- Radial speed: 509.0 km/s â- Half angle: 24 deg â- Eruption location: S14E11 âInferences: ââ - Associated flare: C7.0 (S15E22). Peak at 2022-11-22 06:59 âPredictions for Earth: ââ - In-situ shock speed: 537.64 km/s ââ - Shock arrival time: 2022-11-25 09:54 (i.e. predicted transit time: 73.90 hours)Lead Time: 64.07 hour(s) Difference: ----- Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-11-22T17:50Z |
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