CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-11-22T08:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-11-22T08:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22427/-1
CME Note: Halo CME seen first in the SE of SOHO LASCO C2 and then in the SSW in STEREO A COR2 and is likely associated with the C7.0-class flare from AR3151 peaking around 2022-11-22T07:27Z. The flare and subsequent eruption was accompanied by an EUV wave which was mostly directed toward the south and east as seen in SDO AIA 193 and 171 imagery starting around 2022-11-22T07:09Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-11-25T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:
A C7 flare observed at 22/0727 with associated southward directed CME. At first wasnt entirely confident with the association as I felt perhaps an on disk event further south due to the trajectory of the CME and AR3151 more centralish location. Anyway, the Enlil run output shows the bulk of the CME passing under the Earth with the top tip of the CME possibly impacting the Earth magnetosphere on 25-NOv 1200UT. LASCO C2 and STERO-A used in the CAT analysis, C3 difference images were not used as probably the arm of the blanking disk obscured the CME.Lead Time: 35.23 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2022-11-24T00:46Z
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