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Prediction for CME (2022-11-29T20:24:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2022-11-29T20:24ZCME Note: A partial halo CME seen to the SE in C2 and possibly starting to be seen very faintly in SSE in COR2A difference imagery starting after ~2022-11-29T20:38Z (it could be obscured in white light imagery by the SE streamer). The source appears to be a large, slowly developing S-shaped complex filament eruption centered around S20E25 seen in SDO 304 starting ~2022-11-29T14:00Z. The filament stretches from about N20E30 to S30E10 in GOES SUVI/SDO AIA 304 and around -30 to 2 degrees longitude in EUVI A 195. This CME may have been combined with arrival of CME with ID 2022-12-01T07:48:00-CME-001. CME was not detected at Earth. Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-12-03T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Prediction Method Note: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/22574/1 Model Inputs: 2022-11-29T20:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-26.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=301.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2022-11-30T07:09Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-12-03T22:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=2 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-12-05T18:00Z Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-12-03T04:00Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-12-03T18:00Z STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-12-04T00:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221130_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 93.90 hour(s) Difference: ----- Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2022-11-30T00:06Z |
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