CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-11-29T20:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-11-29T20:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22571/-1
CME Note: A partial halo CME seen to the SE in C2 and possibly starting to be seen very faintly in SSE in COR2A difference imagery starting after ~2022-11-29T20:38Z (it could be obscured in white light imagery by the SE streamer). The source appears to be a large, slowly developing S-shaped complex filament eruption centered around S20E25 seen in SDO 304 starting ~2022-11-29T14:00Z. The filament stretches from about N20E30 to S30E10 in GOES SUVI/SDO AIA 304 and around -30 to 2 degrees longitude in EUVI A 195. This CME may have been combined with arrival of CME with ID 2022-12-01T07:48:00-CME-001.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-12-04T02:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 82.83 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2022-11-30T15:10Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement