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Prediction for CME (2023-01-12T02:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-01-12T02:36Z
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CME Note: Faint CME with an interesting mushroom shape - or likely two or even three very close successive CMEs NNW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is likely a gradual eruption(s) in and NW of AR 3185 (N20W28) seen starting around 2023-01-12T01:00Z as seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 with post-eruptive arcades near the AR and in the location NE of the AR. Arrival is likely associated with the interplanetary shock observed at L1 on 2023-01-14T21:50Z. This signature was characterized by an increase in Btotal to 11nT and solar wind speeds up to ~500 km/s. It was also accompanied by slight increases in density and temperature. Per advice from the LASSOS team, this arrival is likely a glancing blow due to the lack of a clear rotation in magnetic field components/flux rope signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-14T21:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-15T10:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 2.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 50.58 hour(s)
Difference: -12.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-01-12T19:15Z
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