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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-01-14T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-01-14T21:36Z
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the W/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M4.6 flare from AR 3182 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-01-14T20:35Z. An opening of field lines is visible in SDO AIA 171 at 20:50Z and post eruptive loops start to form in SDO AIA 193 around 22:30Z. Eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with B total reaching 15 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from 387 km/s at 2023-01-17T20:53Z to 488 km/s at 2023-01-18T02:08Z. Additional increases in density and temperature. Signature is still developing and analysis is ongoing. This arrival may also be associated with CME: 2023-01-15T03:48Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-17T21:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-18T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/23320/1
Model Inputs:
2023-01-14T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=39.0, Lat.=-29.0, Speed=326.0, HalfAngle=48.0, Time21.5=2023-01-15T08:55Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-01-18T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-01-19T02:38Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_085500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Lead Time: 53.05 hour(s)
Difference: -24.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-01-15T16:07Z
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