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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-01-14T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-01-14T21:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL:
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the W/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M4.6 flare from AR 3182 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-01-14T20:35Z. An opening of field lines is visible in SDO AIA 171 at 20:50Z and post eruptive loops start to form in SDO AIA 193 around 22:30Z. Eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with B total reaching 15 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from 387 km/s at 2023-01-17T20:53Z to 488 km/s at 2023-01-18T02:08Z. Additional increases in density and temperature. Signature is still developing and analysis is ongoing. This arrival may also be associated with CME: 2023-01-15T03:48Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-17T21:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-19T07:40Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 45.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.66667 - 4.66667
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: -141.55 hour(s)
Difference: -34.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-01-23T18:43Z
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