CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-01-15T03:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-01-15T03:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL:
CME Note: This CME is visible to the E/SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M6.0 flare from AR 3191 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-01-15T03:20Z. Opening of field lines is visible off the eastern limb in SDO AIA 171 at this time, and post-eruptive dimming appears around 03:45Z in SDO AIA 193. Arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with B total reaching 15 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from 387 km/s at 2023-01-17T20:53Z to 488 km/s at 2023-01-18T02:08Z. Additional increases in density and temperature. Signature is still developing and analysis is ongoing. This arrival may also be associated with CME: 2023-01-14T21:36Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-17T21:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-17T17:44Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM
Most pr. speed = 1024.0 km/sec
The EAM version you are running is: v3
Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI:10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]
u_r =      601.632
Acceleration:      0.462275
Duration in seconds:        223010.60
Duration in days:        2.5811412
t2 is negative
Acceleration of the CME:   0.46 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  704.7 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/01/2023 Time: 17:44 UT
Lead Time: 52.07 hour(s)
Difference: 3.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-01-15T17:06Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement