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Prediction for CME (2023-01-15T03:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-01-15T03:48Z
CME Note: This CME is visible to the E/SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M6.0 flare from AR 3191 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-01-15T03:20Z. Opening of field lines is visible off the eastern limb in SDO AIA 171 at this time, and post-eruptive dimming appears around 03:45Z in SDO AIA 193. Arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with B total reaching 15 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from 387 km/s at 2023-01-17T20:53Z to 488 km/s at 2023-01-18T02:08Z. Additional increases in density and temperature. Signature is still developing and analysis is ongoing. This arrival may also be associated with CME: 2023-01-14T21:36Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-17T21:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-18T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:
M6.0 flare 15/0342 from AR3191(N12E54). CME first visible in LASCO C2 2023-01-15T0348UT. Predominately eastward and south, Enlil model output shows a possible weak edge reaching Earth 18-Jan ~04UT. Confidence low due to ~E50 longitude. CAT params T2023-01-15 07:57, lat: -15, lon: -49, cone: 37, vel: 838
Lead Time: 45.17 hour(s)
Difference: -6.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-01-16T00:00Z
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