CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-01-14T21:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-01-14T21:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23318/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the W/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M4.6 flare from AR 3182 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-01-14T20:35Z. An opening of field lines is visible in SDO AIA 171 at 20:50Z and post eruptive loops start to form in SDO AIA 193 around 22:30Z. Eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with B total reaching 15 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from 387 km/s at 2023-01-17T20:53Z to 488 km/s at 2023-01-18T02:08Z. Additional increases in density and temperature. Signature is still developing and analysis is ongoing. This arrival may also be associated with CME: 2023-01-15T03:48Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-17T21:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-19T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:
M4.6 flare CME first visible LASCO C2 2023-01-14T2212Z CAT params T2023-01-15 13:09, lat -16, lon 41, cone 45, vel 236. (very slow speed). Forecaster looked at M3.5/M4.6 pair as two events a southwest CME with the M3.5 and an overlapping westward CME with the M4.6.Lead Time: 44.83 hour(s)
Difference: -44.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-01-16T00:20Z
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