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Prediction for CME (2023-01-14T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-01-14T21:36Z
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the W/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M4.6 flare from AR 3182 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-01-14T20:35Z. An opening of field lines is visible in SDO AIA 171 at 20:50Z and post eruptive loops start to form in SDO AIA 193 around 22:30Z. Eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with B total reaching 15 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from 387 km/s at 2023-01-17T20:53Z to 488 km/s at 2023-01-18T02:08Z. Additional increases in density and temperature. Signature is still developing and analysis is ongoing. This arrival may also be associated with CME: 2023-01-15T03:48Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-17T21:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-19T03:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-01-15T09:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 400
Longitude (deg): 046W
Latitude (deg): 30S
Half-angular width (deg): 53

Notes: "Clear lift off from region of AR3182 as a result of two concurrent flares [treated as one event here for modelling]. Liftoff appears on AIA94 at around time indicated. Clear fit on both C3, C2 and STEREO A. Good confident fit". Edit - MTL - reanalysis did not sig alter above save 27W and 341km/s details, prob worse fit compared with emission loc, and RPS's wholly preferred.
Space weather advisor: MTL on behalf of RPS
Lead Time: 55.67 hour(s)
Difference: -29.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-01-15T13:30Z
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