Prediction for CME (2023-01-19T11:36:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2023-01-19T11:36Z
CME Note: Super faint CME (best seen in difference imagery) E in C2/C3 and COR2A. Its source is likely the relatively minor eruption associated with M class flare from AR 3196 (N12E38) peaking at 2023-01-19T10:12Z. Eruption is seen in AIA 304 starting around 2023-01-19T10:20Z and is directed mostly southward (explaining why the CME might be deflected to the south). Eruption is also seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 as dimming (and possibly a EUV wave), with dimming mostly to the SE of the AR. Arrival observed at Earth on 2023-01-23T02:59Z is believed to be more likely associated with CME: 2023-01-20T16:12Z, but could be a combined arrival of two or more CMEs, including this one.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-22T17:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-01-19T19:51:46Z ## Message ID: 20230119-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. Start time of the event: 2023-01-19T11:36Z. Estimated speed: ~826 km/s. Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg. Direction (lon./lat.): -35/-2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates. Activity ID: 2023-01-19T11:36:00-CME-001 Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2023-01-24T13:17Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-01-22T04:34Z, and STEREO A at 2023-01-22T09:07Z (plus minus 7 hours). The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-01-22T17:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor). Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-01-19T11:36:00-CME-001): http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230119_154500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230119_154500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230119_154500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230119_154500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230119_154500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230119_154500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230119_154500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230119_154500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif ## Notes: The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a minor impact at Lucy at about 2023-01-24T02:00Z. SCORE CME typification system: S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s C-type: Common 500-999 km/s O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer Data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided "as is" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it "as is". Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property. The terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.Lead Time: 69.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-01-19T19:51Z
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