Prediction for CME (2023-01-19T11:36:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2023-01-19T11:36Z
CME Note: Super faint CME (best seen in difference imagery) E in C2/C3 and COR2A. Its source is likely the relatively minor eruption associated with M class flare from AR 3196 (N12E38) peaking at 2023-01-19T10:12Z. Eruption is seen in AIA 304 starting around 2023-01-19T10:20Z and is directed mostly southward (explaining why the CME might be deflected to the south). Eruption is also seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 as dimming (and possibly a EUV wave), with dimming mostly to the SE of the AR. Arrival observed at Earth on 2023-01-23T02:59Z is believed to be more likely associated with CME: 2023-01-20T16:12Z, but could be a combined arrival of two or more CMEs, including this one.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-22T22:05Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 49.5%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.33333 - 4.66667
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 32.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-01-21T13:36Z
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