CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-01-20T16:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-01-20T16:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23392/-1
CME Note: CME directed mainly south in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 imagery which is embedded within CME: 2023-01-20T13:36Z. The source is a C5.3-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3190 located near S15W13 seen in SDO 193/304/171 with brightening at the source and opening field line movement followed by a broad area of dimming to the south, east, and west. Magnetic field discontinuity indicates arrival of the interplanetary shock near 2023-01-23T02:59Z with simultaneous rapid density and velocity increases.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-23T02:59Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-23T15:38Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 53.5%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.33333 - 4.66667
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -13.18 hour(s)
Difference: -12.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-01-23T16:10Z
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