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Prediction for CME (2023-01-20T13:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-01-20T13:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23385/-1
CME Note: Bright, wide CME with filamentary structure seen to the southwest in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs. Associated with a large-scale filament eruption whose filament at 2023-01-20T11:00Z was stretched from S42W25 northwest to about S30W70 (center point approximately S35W52). The eruption and post eruptive brightening is seen best in SDO 304 but also in SDO 193/171/211 occurring near 13:00Z. Arrival observed at Earth on 2023-01-23T02:59Z is believed to be more likely associated with CME: 2023-01-20T16:12Z, though its arrival is possibly associated with this CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-23T12:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 21/1847
Radial velocity (km/s): 770
Longitude (deg): 49W
Latitude (deg): 39S
Half-angular width (deg): 36

Notes: Good fit to both STEREO and LASCO imagery
Space weather advisor: Duty

Lead Time: 46.52 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-01-21T13:29Z

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