CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-01-19T11:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-01-19T11:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23368/-1
CME Note: Super faint CME (best seen in difference imagery) E in C2/C3 and COR2A. Its source is likely the relatively minor eruption associated with M class flare from AR 3196 (N12E38) peaking at 2023-01-19T10:12Z. Eruption is seen in AIA 304 starting around 2023-01-19T10:20Z and is directed mostly southward (explaining why the CME might be deflected to the south). Eruption is also seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 as dimming (and possibly a EUV wave), with dimming mostly to the SE of the AR. Arrival observed at Earth on 2023-01-23T02:59Z is believed to be more likely associated with CME: 2023-01-20T16:12Z, but could be a combined arrival of two or more CMEs, including this one.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-23T14:00Z (-24.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 20/0940Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 530
Longitude (deg): 5E
Latitude (deg): 9S
Half-angular width (deg): 47 

Notes: Very faint halo.
Space weather advisor: Duty

Lead Time: 48.52 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-01-21T13:29Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement