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Prediction for CME (2023-01-20T16:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-01-20T16:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL:
CME Note: CME directed mainly south in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 imagery which is embedded within CME: 2023-01-20T13:36Z. The source is a C5.3-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3190 located near S15W13 seen in SDO 193/304/171 with brightening at the source and opening field line movement followed by a broad area of dimming to the south, east, and west. Magnetic field discontinuity indicates arrival of the interplanetary shock near 2023-01-23T02:59Z with simultaneous rapid density and velocity increases.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-23T02:59Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-23T18:18Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Lead Time: -9.42 hour(s)
Difference: -15.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-01-23T12:24Z
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