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Prediction for CME (2023-02-03T13:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-03T13:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23576/-1
CME Note: Secondary eruption closely following behind CME: 2023-02-03T10:36Z seen to the west in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A coronagraphs. There are no secondary eruptions seen on the Earth facing-disk, but preliminary measurements suggest it too is associated with a broad area of long-lasting dimming seen in the western hemisphere as evidenced by GOES-16 284 and SDO 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-06T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/23588/1
Model Inputs:
2023-02-03T10:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=35.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=475.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2023-02-03T17:29Z
2023-02-03T13:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=34.0, Lat.=0.0, Speed=443.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2023-02-03T20:31Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-02-06T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230203_173000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 70.28 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-02-03T19:43Z

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