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Prediction for CME (2023-02-10T12:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-10T12:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23693/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen in the SW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption around S20W35 that lifts off starting around 2023-02-10T08:00Z. Data gap in STEREO A COR2 from 2023-02-10T11:09Z to 2023-02-10T15:23Z. This event might have been overtakend by the 2023-02-11T11:12Z CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-14T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/23697/1
Model Inputs:
2023-02-10T12:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=31.0, Lat.=-43.0, Speed=393.0, HalfAngle=40.0, Time21.5=2023-02-10T21:11Z
2023-02-10T09:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=55.0, Lat.=-50.0, Speed=254.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2023-02-10T23:52Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-02-14T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230210_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 91.38 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2023-02-10T20:37Z

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