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Prediction for CME (2023-02-11T11:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-11T11:12Z
CME Note: The CME visible N/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. There is a more clear bulk portion that shows filamentary structures within it and then a more faint partial halo seen more clearly in difference imagery. The source is a filament eruption from the region NE of AR13216, there is also subsequent brightening, potential flaring from AR13216 during this eruption. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS team: Arrival is marked by the enhancement of the B field over the background, accompanied by a drop in proton density and the start of a low-density period. Temperature data seems to be sensitive. A significant data gap makes it difficult to analyze the nature of field rotations. However, the rotations might not be significant due to a possible flank crossing. Due to that, at L1, the flux rope is possibly not encountered.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-13T17:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-12T12:31Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM
Most pr. speed = 1888.0 km/sec
The EAM version you are running is: v2
u_r =      1980.49
Acceleration:      -8.29437
% Compiled module: CALDAT.
Duration in seconds:        91191.390
Duration in days:        1.0554559
Acceleration of the CME:  -8.29 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 1224.1 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/02/2023 Time: 12:31 UT
Lead Time: 34.03 hour(s)
Difference: 28.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-02-12T07:00Z
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