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Prediction for CME (2023-02-11T11:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-11T11:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL:
CME Note: The CME visible N/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. There is a more clear bulk portion that shows filamentary structures within it and then a more faint partial halo seen more clearly in difference imagery. The source is a filament eruption from the region NE of AR13216, there is also subsequent brightening, potential flaring from AR13216 during this eruption. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS team: Arrival is marked by the enhancement of the B field over the background, accompanied by a drop in proton density and the start of a low-density period. Temperature data seems to be sensitive. A significant data gap makes it difficult to analyze the nature of field rotations. However, the rotations might not be significant due to a possible flank crossing. Due to that, at L1, the flux rope is possibly not encountered.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-13T17:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-13T12:03Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM
Most pr. speed = 1888.0 km/sec
The EAM version you are running is: v3
Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]
u_r =      1070.78
Acceleration:      -2.72942
Duration in seconds:        175884.09
Duration in days:        2.0356955
Acceleration of the CME:  -2.73 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  590.7 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 13/02/2023 Time: 12:03 UT
Lead Time: 33.95 hour(s)
Difference: 4.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-02-12T07:05Z
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