Prediction for CME (2023-02-15T02:12:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2023-02-15T02:12Z
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2023-02-14T14:23Z to 2023-02-15T09:23Z. This eruption is associated with a C5.6 flare from AR 13220 and an eruption best seen in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2023-02-15T01:00Z centered around S05E15. The eruption can also be seen with dimming in SDO AIA 193. This CME leading edge is asymmetrical and has a component directed towards the south/southeast first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-02-15T02:48Z while the rest of the CME starting at 02:12Z is directed more eastward. This eruption may be 2 simultaneous eruptions in close proximity but it is not clear if there are separate CMEs.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-17T15:51Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-02-15T16:37:20Z ## Message ID: 20230215-AL-002 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: C-type CME detected by SOHO. Start time of the event: 2023-02-15T02:12Z. Estimated speed: ~624 km/s. Estimated opening half-angle: 41 deg. Direction (lon./lat.): -15/-11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates. Activity ID: 2023-02-15T02:12:00-CME-001 Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Lucy. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2023-02-19T22:26Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-02-17T08:51Z, STEREO A at 2023-02-17T15:04Z, and Lucy at 2023-02-19T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-02-17T15:51Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong). Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-02-15T02:12:00-CME-001): http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230215_073300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230215_073300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230215_073300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230215_073300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230215_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230215_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230215_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230215_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif ## Notes: SCORE CME typification system: S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s C-type: Common 500-999 km/s O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer Data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided "as is" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it "as is". Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property. The terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.Lead Time: 47.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-02-15T16:37Z
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