Prediction for CME (2023-02-15T02:12:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2023-02-15T02:12Z
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2023-02-14T14:23Z to 2023-02-15T09:23Z. This eruption is associated with a C5.6 flare from AR 13220 and an eruption best seen in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2023-02-15T01:00Z centered around S05E15. The eruption can also be seen with dimming in SDO AIA 193. This CME leading edge is asymmetrical and has a component directed towards the south/southeast first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-02-15T02:48Z while the rest of the CME starting at 02:12Z is directed more eastward. This eruption may be 2 simultaneous eruptions in close proximity but it is not clear if there are separate CMEs.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-17T20:32Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-02-15 07:33 â- Time at C2: 2023-02-15 02:12 â- Radial speed: 624.0 km/s â- Half angle: 41 deg â- Eruption location: S11E15 âInferences: ââ - No flare association was found âPredictions for Earth: ââ - In-situ shock speed: 593.20 km/s ââ - Shock arrival time: 2023-02-17 20:32 (i.e. predicted transit time: 66.35 hours)Lead Time: 47.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-02-15T21:00Z
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