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Prediction for CME (2023-02-15T02:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-15T02:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL:
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2023-02-14T14:23Z to 2023-02-15T09:23Z. This eruption is associated with a C5.6 flare from AR 13220 and an eruption best seen in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2023-02-15T01:00Z centered around S05E15. The eruption can also be seen with dimming in SDO AIA 193. This CME leading edge is asymmetrical and has a component directed towards the south/southeast first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-02-15T02:48Z while the rest of the CME starting at 02:12Z is directed more eastward. This eruption may be 2 simultaneous eruptions in close proximity but it is not clear if there are separate CMEs.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-18T00:18Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM
Most pr. speed =  624.0 km/sec
The EAM version you are running is: v3
Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4]
u_r =      384.432
Acceleration:       1.54475
Duration in seconds:        252368.39
Duration in days:        2.9209304
t2 is negative
Acceleration of the CME:   1.54 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  774.3 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 18/02/2023 Time: 00:18 UT
Lead Time: 34.32 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-02-16T13:59Z
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