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Prediction for CME (2023-02-16T10:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-16T10:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23780/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery with a fairly flat front. It moves very quickly through the COR2A field of view. The source of this CME is a filament eruption from AR13216 starting around 2023-02-16T10:10Z. The eruption is most notably seen in SDO/AIA 304, 193, 171, 211, and 131 as well as STEREO A EUVI 195. A post-eruptive arcade follows the eruption as well as notable brightening around the region during this eruption.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-18T23:40Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-02-16 13:01
 - Time at C2: 2023-02-16 10:48
 - Radial speed: 1577.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 36 deg
 - Eruption location: N26W56
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C9.0 (N27W44). Peak at 2023-02-16 10:16
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 642.42 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-02-18 23:40 (i.e. predicted transit time: 60.87 hours)
Lead Time: 52.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-02-16T19:40Z
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