CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-02-15T02:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-15T02:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23770/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2023-02-14T14:23Z to 2023-02-15T09:23Z. This eruption is associated with a C5.6 flare from AR 13220 and an eruption best seen in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2023-02-15T01:00Z centered around S05E15. The eruption can also be seen with dimming in SDO AIA 193. This CME leading edge is asymmetrical and has a component directed towards the south/southeast first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-02-15T02:48Z while the rest of the CME starting at 02:12Z is directed more eastward. This eruption may be 2 simultaneous eruptions in close proximity but it is not clear if there are separate CMEs.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-17T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Details from the SIDC Ursigram
:Issued: 2023 Feb 16 1242 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30216
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Feb 2023, 1241UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Feb 2023 until 18 Feb 2023) 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Feb 2023  10CM FLUX: 171 / AP: 029 
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Feb 2023  10CM FLUX: 169 / AP: 030 
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Feb 2023  10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 021
COMMENT:...

The partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) reported yesterday from February 15 is considered to be Earth directed and is expected to influence the Earth from late on February 17. A CME to the south was observed in LASCO C2 from 01:36 UT February 16, the origin of which is still unclear. A second CME to the north west, from 10:48UT in LASCO C2, related to the long duration C9 flare, is being analyzed to determine if it has an Earth directed component.

Lead Time: 34.57 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-02-16T12:26Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement