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Prediction for CME (2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-17T20:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL:
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME associated with X2.2 flare from AR3229 (N25E65) at 17/1957UT, with an EUVI wave and with the eruption seen as dimming (as far east as -20 deg), best noticeable in STEREO A EUVI 195. The bright bulk of the CME seems to have gone in the more Eastern direction. The likely arrival of this CME is signified by a sharp increase in magnetic field to 14 nT, accompanied by a sudden jump in ion density to over 17 particles/cm^3 and of the solar wind speed from 370 to 430 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-20T09:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-19T14:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2

CME input parameters
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Asymmetric halo CME associated with X2.2 flare from AR3229 at 17/1957UT. A clear frontside eruption is visible in GOES SUVI 284 imagery.

The centre of the shock front passes behind STEREO-A. However, it is very broad, and modelling shows a clear impact with Earth.
Lead Time: 56.40 hour(s)
Difference: 19.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-02-18T01:28Z
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