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Prediction for CME (2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-17T20:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23802/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME associated with X2.2 flare from AR3229 (N25E65) at 17/1957UT, with an EUVI wave and with the eruption seen as dimming (as far east as -20 deg), best noticeable in STEREO A EUVI 195. The bright bulk of the CME seems to have gone in the more Eastern direction. The likely arrival of this CME is signified by a sharp increase in magnetic field to 14 nT, accompanied by a sudden jump in ion density to over 17 particles/cm^3 and of the solar wind speed from 370 to 430 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-20T09:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-19T10:15Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2023-02-18T17:12:04Z
## Message ID: 20230218-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on O-type CME with ID 2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230218-AL-001). 

The updated CME parameters below are based on the analysis of the asymmetrical halo (not the bright bulk of the CME analyzed for the previous notification 20230218-AL-001):

Start time of the event: 2023-02-17T20:23Z.

Estimated speed: ~1487 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -20/4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Lucy.  The leading edge of the CME may reach Mars at 2023-02-21T00:25Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-02-19T03:40Z, STEREO A at 2023-02-19T09:44Z, and Lucy at 2023-02-20T12:45Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-02-19T10:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
   
Activity ID: 2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001

Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME 2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001) is associated with X2.2 flare with ID 2023-02-17T19:38:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13229 (N25E65) which peaked at 2023-02-17T20:16Z (see notifications 20230217-AL-001, 20230217-AL-002).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Lead Time: 40.67 hour(s)
Difference: 23.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-02-18T17:12Z
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