CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2023-02-18T17:12:04Z
## Message ID: 20230218-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on O-type CME with ID 2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230218-AL-001). 

The updated CME parameters below are based on the analysis of the asymmetrical halo (not the bright bulk of the CME analyzed for the previous notification 20230218-AL-001):

Start time of the event: 2023-02-17T20:23Z.

Estimated speed: ~1487 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -20/4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Lucy.  The leading edge of the CME may reach Mars at 2023-02-21T00:25Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-02-19T03:40Z, STEREO A at 2023-02-19T09:44Z, and Lucy at 2023-02-20T12:45Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-02-19T10:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
   
Activity ID: 2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001

Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME 2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001) is associated with X2.2 flare with ID 2023-02-17T19:38:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13229 (N25E65) which peaked at 2023-02-17T20:16Z (see notifications 20230217-AL-001, 20230217-AL-002).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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