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Prediction for CME (2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-17T20:23Z
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME associated with X2.2 flare from AR3229 (N25E65) at 17/1957UT, with an EUVI wave and with the eruption seen as dimming (as far east as -20 deg), best noticeable in STEREO A EUVI 195. The bright bulk of the CME seems to have gone in the more Eastern direction. The likely arrival of this CME is signified by a sharp increase in magnetic field to 14 nT, accompanied by a sudden jump in ion density to over 17 particles/cm^3 and of the solar wind speed from 370 to 430 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-20T09:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-19T17:30Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-02-17 22:08
 - Time at C2: 2023-02-17 20:23
 - Radial speed: 1487.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N04E20
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 852.10 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-02-19 17:30 (i.e. predicted transit time: 45.13 hours)
Lead Time: 40.53 hour(s)
Difference: 16.37 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-02-18T17:20Z
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