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Prediction for CME (2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-17T20:23Z
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME associated with X2.2 flare from AR3229 (N25E65) at 17/1957UT, with an EUVI wave and with the eruption seen as dimming (as far east as -20 deg), best noticeable in STEREO A EUVI 195. The bright bulk of the CME seems to have gone in the more Eastern direction. The likely arrival of this CME is signified by a sharp increase in magnetic field to 14 nT, accompanied by a sudden jump in ion density to over 17 particles/cm^3 and of the solar wind speed from 370 to 430 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-20T09:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-19T10:14Z (-4.2h, +9.3h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.0 - 9.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

## Summary:


Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20230218-AL-001 and 20230218-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO A between about 2023-02-19T05:31Z and 2023-02-19T19:26Z (average arrival 2023-02-19T10:03Z) for 100% of simulations.
- Mars between about 2023-02-20T16:56Z and 2023-02-21T13:48Z (average arrival 2023-02-21T00:54Z) for 100% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-02-19T06:05Z and 2023-02-19T19:32Z (average arrival 2023-02-19T10:14Z) for 100% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 7-9 range (strong to extreme).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:

## Notes:

This CME event (2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at Solar Orbiter at 2023-02-19T03:40Z and at Lucy at 2023-02-20T12:45Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230218-AL-002).

This CME is associated with X2.2 flare with ID 2023-02-17T19:38:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13229 (N25E65) which peaked at 2023-02-17T20:16Z (see notifications 20230217-AL-001, 20230217-AL-002).

Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
Lead Time: 31.62 hour(s)
Difference: 23.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-02-19T02:15Z
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