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Prediction for CME (2023-02-21T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-21T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23853/-1
CME Note: CME seen in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The CME is partially obscured by the pylon in SOHO LASCO C3. Potential source eruption starts around 2023-02-21T00:00Z and is a filament eruption characterized by movement/lift-off in SDO AIA 304, dimming in SDO AIA 193, post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 171, and opening field lines in SDO AIA 171/193. Also visible in the NW of STEREO A EUVI 195. This CME may deflect towards the south in the field of view. Arrival signature discussed by Tarik Salman (LASSOS): Possible ICME encounter starting around 2023-02-24T12:08UT. This coincides with the start of a coherent period of field components and decreasing proton density. The total magnetic field is not significantly elevated over the background. The field components have constant profiles for extended periods which can be an indication of a possible glancing blow. This ICME is also observed to be expanding at L1. A possible end of this ICME is around 2023-02-25T07:26UT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-24T12:08Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-24T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/23855/1
Model Inputs:
2023-02-21T02:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=24.0, Lat.=14.0, Speed=463.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2023-02-21T11:33Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-02-24T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230221_113300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 65.62 hour(s)
Difference: -9.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-02-21T18:31Z

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