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Prediction for CME (2023-02-21T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-21T02:48Z
CME Note: CME seen in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The CME is partially obscured by the pylon in SOHO LASCO C3. Potential source eruption starts around 2023-02-21T00:00Z and is a filament eruption characterized by movement/lift-off in SDO AIA 304, dimming in SDO AIA 193, post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 171, and opening field lines in SDO AIA 171/193. Also visible in the NW of STEREO A EUVI 195. This CME may deflect towards the south in the field of view. Arrival signature discussed by Tarik Salman (LASSOS): Possible ICME encounter starting around 2023-02-24T12:08UT. This coincides with the start of a coherent period of field components and decreasing proton density. The total magnetic field is not significantly elevated over the background. The field components have constant profiles for extended periods which can be an indication of a possible glancing blow. This ICME is also observed to be expanding at L1. A possible end of this ICME is around 2023-02-25T07:26UT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-24T12:08Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-24T07:41Z (-5.25h, +5.25h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 16.67%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO A between about 2023-02-24T11:23Z and 2023-02-24T11:23Z (average arrival 2023-02-24T11:23Z) for 2% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-02-24T02:27Z and 2023-02-24T12:55Z (average arrival 2023-02-24T07:41Z) for 16% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 79% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:

## Notes:
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
Lead Time: 57.98 hour(s)
Difference: 4.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-02-22T02:09Z
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