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Prediction for CME (2023-02-22T14:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-22T14:36Z
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption which stretches across the NW quadrant and lifts off around 2023-02-22T13:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193 and 304 imagery. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-25T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/23882/1
Model Inputs:
2023-02-22T14:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-31.0, Lat.=19.0, Speed=510.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2023-02-22T21:46Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-02-25T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-24T18:42Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-27T14:00Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-28T08:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-25T11:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230222_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Lead Time: 73.58 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-02-22T20:25Z
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